Just Transition Study Update
January 19, 2023
1.0 Executive Summary
In 2019, the Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE) requested an evaluation of economic dislocations resulting from potential carbon mitigation strategies as part of the State’s 2030 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Act (GGRA) Plan. Accordingly, the Regional Economic Studies Institute of Towson University (RESI) evaluated economic dislocations that could result from potential carbon mitigation strategies, and identified related occupations into which displaced workers could shift during a Just Transition effort. These economic dislocations included direct impacts to fossil-fuel-reliant workers, and other related disparities associated with the State’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
The current report serves as an update to the previous analysis, and utilizes new data obtained from RESI’s GGRA Plan Analysis that was conducted for the State. Through this new analysis, RESI was able to more clearly focus the study on expected impacts from the State’s GHGreduction strategies using results from REMI PI+ (REMI), a dynamic modeling tool used for economic policy modeling analysis. Utilization of this model allowed the project team to evaluate both baseline employment trends in Maryland’s fossil-fuel-reliant industries, as well as additional industry impacts resulting from policy implementation. The objectives outlined for the current study once again included identification of alternative employment strategies for displaced workers, in addition to a closer evaluation of the effects on fossil-fuel-impacted communities. To meet the project objectives, RESI utilized the following methodology:
- Identified major fossil-fuel-reliant industries within the state, focusing on industries related to Maryland’s fossil-fuel supply chain and those significantly impacted by changes to State environmental policies;
- Estimated the proportion of employment impacted by State environmental policies in each negatively affected industry of focus;
- Determined key threatened occupations within the industries of focus and the size of affected employment;
- Analyzed related job opportunities for displaced employees;
- Researched typical employment requirements and training opportunities within the state for related occupations as well as for clean energy jobs; and
- Provided a summary of potential impacts to communities impacted by transitions away from fossil-fuel reliance, and strategies to provide restorative environmental and social justice.
You can read or download the full report below.
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